What happened: Led by the Portland Metro Chamber, the Value of Jobs Coalition on Feb. 20 released its 2025 State of the Economy report, which focuses on population and employment changes in the Portland metropolitan area. It says what most business leaders have been warning about for years: The region is losing people, jobs and the tax revenue both provide. Despite some competitive advantages, including Oregon’s quality of life (6th in CNBC’s latest America’s Top States for Business rankings) and its reputation for technology and innovation (9th), the Portland area – the heart of Oregon’s economic engine – is struggling and policymakers need to take action.
The full report, which you can find here, is worth reading, but the four graphics to the right tell much of the story (click them for larger versions).
Population change: The populations of the three counties in on the Oregon side of the Columbia continue to either shrink (Multnomah and Washington counties) or stagnate (Clackamas County). The effects of outmigration are particularly notable for the former two counties. Across the river in Clark County, meanwhile, the population continues to increase, fueled by in-migration.
Overall employment: Job growth mirrors population trends. Clark County is adding jobs, Multnomah County is losing jobs and Washington and Clackamas counties remain near pre-pandemic levels. In 2024, nationwide employment grew by 1.34%. Employment in the Portland region declined by 0.59%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Industry sector employment: Health services and private education jobs have increased in the Portland area, as have government jobs. Jobs in other sectors have declined, including information, financial activities and manufacturing. The trend indicates a rise in local sector employment and a decline in traded sector employment. Traded sector jobs, which bring money into the area from outside, tend to pay more than local sector jobs, which recirculate money in the economy.
Housing investor interest: Unfortunately, Portland’s appeal for outside investment has reached a historic low. According to the Urban Land Institute’s latest survey, which measures the attractiveness of cities for outside investment, Oregon ranked 80th out of 81 cities. Only Hartford, Conn., held less appeal. Local and state leaders need to recognize this problem and work to reverse it.
Why it matters: The health of the Portland area and the rest of the state requires continued growth, which allows people to thrive and businesses of all sizes to prosper. Growth also generates tax revenue to fund important state and local services. Oregon cannot take that growth for granted. In the absence of growth, opportunities for Oregonians will dwindle and tax revenue will fail to keep pace with the needs of effective, high-quality programs.
A statewide problem: Economic and population struggles in and around Portland are statewide problems for at least two reasons. First, the three counties play an outsized role in Oregon’s economy. The businesses located within them provide a disproportionate number of high-paying jobs and tax revenue. Second, expensive housing, high taxes and an eroding business climate are problems throughout Oregon. Housing in Oregon is among the least affordable (44th nationally), according to the respected Missouri Economic Research and Information Center. Between June 2023 and June 2024, Oregon ranked 45th nationally for manufacturing job growth and languished in the bottom 10 in other areas, including construction and professional and business services.
What policymakers can do: Creating conditions that encourage business investment and increase affordability will produce jobs, discourage flight and ultimately lead to growth in our economy. OBI’s Oregon Competitiveness Agenda contains dozens of policy proposals that would improve the state’s business climate and the Portland Metro Chamber has policy proposals specific to strengthening the Portland area.
Where can I learn more: Read the State of the Economy report here, OBI’s Oregon Competitiveness Agenda here, and the Portland Metro Chamber’s public policy focus areas here.
