Oregon Economic Summit Highlighted Challenges, Imperatives
What happened: The business leaders and elected officials who attended OBI’s inaugural Oregon Economic Summit on May 28 heard a message that is both familiar and increasingly urgent: Oregon’s economy and residents continue to struggle as state and local policies erode its competitiveness. Roughly half a dozen speakers and panelists examined Oregon’s economic and competitive problems from different perspectives, and OBI President and CEO Angela Wilhelms concluded by urging state leaders to start taking the steps needed to change the state’s trajectory.
The national context: Keynote speaker Ted Abernathy, a partner with North Carolina-based Economic Leadership, shared data illustrating Oregon’s slipping competitiveness relative to other states (view his slides here). Employment in Oregon, for example, increased only 1.9% from 2019-2025, less than in any of its neighboring states and well below the national average of 5%. Over the same period, state GDP growth (10.9%) also trailed all neighboring states and the national average (15.1%). The decline of Oregon’s manufacturing sector has been particularly steep. Oregon’s manufacturing index ranking fell from an enviable 7th in 2018 to 36th in 2025. Oregon has lagged even in measures of entrepreneurialism, historically a state strength. From January 2020 to December 2025, Oregon ranked only 40th nationally for new business formations. The takeaway: States are competing fiercely for business investment and for talented employees, and Oregon is being left behind.
Views from Oregon: Following Abernathy’s overview of Oregon’s competitiveness, a panel of Oregon experts addressed many of the same issues from differing perspectives. Moderated by Papé Group President and CEO Jordan Papé, the panel included Monique Cardwell, president and CEO of Greater Portland Inc.; John Horvick, senior vice president of DHM Research; Tim Inman, chief policy and public affairs officer with The Ford Family Foundation; and Mike Wilkerson, partner with ECOnorthwest (read their bios here). While there isn’t room here to capture the full conversation, there was general agreement on two points: Oregon continues to enjoy the same natural advantages that have drawn so many people here during periods of economic and competitive strength; and the notion that conditions that help businesses necessarily hurt workers is utterly false. Conditions in which businesses thrive, in fact, support the creation of more and better jobs, not to mention greater tax revenue.
Call to action: OBI President and CEO Angela Wilhelms concluded the summit by arguing that Oregon can, once again, become a beacon of opportunity and prosperity. For that to happen, however, policymakers must reconsider the harmful policies that have eroded the state’s competitiveness and bogged down its economy in recent years. In addition, they must check the habit of reflexively villainizing business. Broadly attacking the entrepreneurs, owners and investors who employ 1.7 million Oregonians and produce billions of tax dollars annually is deeply misguided.
Jobs champion recognized: Despite regulatory and other challenges, building a great business remains possible in Oregon, as Mike Keiser, the recipient of OBI’s Jobs Champion Award, has shown. Mike founded the Bandon Dunes Golf Resort, a bucket-list golf destination on Oregon’s south coast that employs hundreds of people, supports many nearby businesses and generates substantial philanthropic activity. Mike was honored during the Oregon Economic Summit. Read the announcement here.
Learn more: Much of the data, rankings and historical trends discussed during the Oregon Economic Summit can be found on OBI’s regularly updated Oregon Scorecard.
Results of May Primary Election Are a Mixed Bag
Strong turnout: As is often the case, the results of this year’s primary election are a mixed bag. At a high level, we saw a significant increase in voter turnout, with higher participation rates than any of the three preceding primary midterms. Experts attribute the strong turnout to the gas tax referendum, which energized anti-tax Republican voters and provided non-affiliated voters (whose primary ballots normally contain few contests because Oregon uses a closed primary system) a rare opportunity to vote on a high-profile contest in a May election.
Highlights: Two positive results deserve to be mentioned. By a 62%-38% margin, Lane County voters rejected Measure 20-373, a countywide ballot measure self-titled “The Watershed Bill of Rights.” The measure would have granted new rights to waterways and connected ecosystems and threatened punitive legal consequences for violations of those rights, which were extremely broad and poorly defined. In Lake Oswego, meanwhile, moderate Democrat Rep. Daniel Nguyen easily dispatched a more progressive challenger backed by the Oregon Trial Lawyers Association and Oregon Education Association.
Moderates defeated: The results of two Washington County primary elections promise to move the Legislature in a less moderate direction. First, Sen. Janeen Sollman, D-Hillsboro, lost narrowly to a democratic socialist candidate, Myrna Munoz. In the race for an open Beaverton House seat, meanwhile, democratic socialist Tammy Carpenter narrowly defeated Beaverton City Councilor Ashley Hartmeier-Prigg. Much of the business community, including the OBI PAC, endorsed the comparatively moderate Sollman and Hartmeier-Prigg.
Looking to November: Initiative Petition 28, the so-called People for the Elimination of Animal Cruelty Exemptions (PEACE) Act, was not on the May ballot but may qualify for the November ballot. The measure would criminalize any “harm” to an animal, defined as any nonhuman mammal, bird, reptile, amphibian or fish. The measure effectively would render illegal everything from ranching and animal husbandry to recreational fishing. Several recent news stories have led some to believe that IP 28 has qualified to for the November election, but that is not the case. The confusion stems from the fact that petitioners claim to have collected 120,935 signatures, which is more than the 117,173 needed to qualify. However, those signatures will be subjected to a verification process, and many submitted signatures will be deemed invalid. The average validity rate for signatures (dating back to 2020) is 79.9%. Assuming that same validity rate, IP 28 petitioners likely will need to submit 146,650 signatures by the July deadline. To do so would require the petitioners to collect more signatures over the course of the next month than they have during similar time periods to date. In short, while IP 28 is the closest initiative to qualifying, its qualification is not guaranteed.
Quarterly Forecast: Revenue Increases as Economy Slows
What happened: On May 20, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) presented Economic and Revenue Forecast for the second quarter of the year. This forecast, technically the June forecast, provides an update for the Legislature following the short session, which concluded in early March. Historically, this forecast has provided an early indication of the likelihood that Oregonians would receive kicker payments or that the Legislature would need to plug budget holes caused by economic weakness. According to the May 20 forecast, neither of these scenarios is likely.
Slowing economy: In presenting the forecast to legislators, Oregon Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna characterized it as a “slower growth” forecast rather than a recession forecast. Nationally, the economy is softening, with anticipated national GDP growth shrinking from 2.2% to 1.6% in 2026. Notably, Oregon’s economy continues to grow more slowly than the national average. In 2025, state GDP grew by 1%, which is roughly half the rate of the national economy.
Steady revenue: Despite the state’s continued economic malaise, the OEA increased its revenue projections for the 2025-27 biennium. Net general fund revenue is now expected to reach $35.69 billion, an increase of $345 million since the first-quarter forecast and $139 million since the close of the 2025 legislative session. The 2025-27 general fund is now projected to enjoy an ending fund balance of $344.6 million. These projections fully account for the revenue impacts caused by HR 1’s changes to federal law.
Weak case for taxes: Given Oregon’s healthy ending fund balance, the state’s struggling economy and its tepid population growth, policymakers should resist calls to increase taxes on individuals and businesses during the 2027 session.
Read more: Read the full OEA report here and OBI’s full take on it here.
Oregon Civics Bee Coming June 16 to Oregon Capitol
Nine middle-schoolers have qualified to participate in the third annual Oregon Civics Bee, which will take place June 16 in Salem. The qualifying students finished among the top three in a trio of regional bees that occurred in April in Beaverton, Eugene and Tigard.
The Oregon Civics Bee will take place in the House Chamber of the Oregon Capitol. Secretary of State Tobias Read will emcee the competition, which will run from 2-3:30 p.m. The bee will feature a quiz-style competition as well as engagement with a panel of judges about student essays identifying community problems and proposing solutions guided by civic virtues. The winner of the Oregon Civics Bee will be invited to participate in the National Civics Bee®, which will take place in Washington, D.C., in fall 2026.
The Oregon Civics Bee is presented by Kinder Morgan with support from the Oregon State Capitol Foundation. It is organized by Oregon Business & Industry in partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation.
Go here to learn more about the Oregon Civics Bee.
Oregon Symphony President and CEO Paul Snyder
The Oregon Symphony, now in its 130th year, is Portland’s largest performing arts organization. It entertains hundreds of thousands of people annually, many of them in Portland’s Arlene Schnitzer Concert Hall. Oregon Symphony President and CEO Paul Snyder talks with Oregon Business Matters about the variety of programming the symphony produces, its impact on the regional economy, the importance of private sector philanthropy and much more. Listen to our conversation with Paul here.
In case you missed them, check out our recent interviews with Con-Vey Chairman and CEO Dave Larecy, Sport Oregon CEO Jim Etzel and Hillsboro Hops President and General Manager K.L. Wombacher, Visit the Oregon Business Matters website to listen.
The Oregon Business Matters podcast can be found on major podcast platforms, including Apple, Spotify and YouTube.
Oregon Scorecard Update: Per Capita Personal Income
In 2025, Oregon’s per capita personal income increased 3.9% to $73,678, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The state’s rate of increase trailed the national average of 4.3%. Likewise, Oregon’s per capita personal income trailed the national average of $76,393.
Relative to the national average, per capita personal income in Oregon improved dramatically from 2010 (see chart), when it was roughly 88% of the national average, to 2020, when it approached 96% of the national average. In the five years since 2020, however, per capita personal income in Oregon has stalled at about 96% of the national average. The percentage retreated slightly in 2025, dropping by 0.4 percentage points.
In terms of state rankings since 2005, Oregon peaked in 2021, when per capital personal income was the nation’s 20th highest. In 2025, it was 23rd.
Oregon Leadership Academy Seeks Sponsors, Applicants
The application period for OBI’s inaugural Oregon Leadership Academy has been extended to June 19 for OBI members and partner organizations. OBI is excited about the number of applicants who have applied but wants to make sure other member companies have an opportunity to send participants. In the meantime, OBI seeks sponsors to help with the cost of this program.
As a reminder, the Oregon Leadership Academy is a training, education and community-building program designed to prepare emerging leaders for state-level public service and civic engagement. The inaugural cohort will begin in September 2026 and end in March 2027. Learn more on the OLA page or email Ryan Tuthill (ryantuthill@oregonbusinessindustry.com). Please share this information with those you think would make great candidates!
Save the Date: Ballard Spahr Employer Best Practices Seminars
Save the date for Ballard Spahr’s annual Best Practices for Best Employers labor and employment seminar in Portland on Sept. 23 from 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. at the Marriott Downtown Waterfront. Click here for more information. The price is $265 but OBI members receive a discount. If you have questions, please email Liza Pineda. The annual seminar, now in its 44th year, will help bring employers up to speed on developments that affect their businesses. Interactive sessions will cover:
- Critical changes you need to know about labor and employment laws at the federal, state and local levels
- Class action trends and the steps you can take now to avoid them
- Using executive coaching to strengthen leadership and performance while reducing legal risk
- Navigating leave and accommodation challenges
- Your new legal obligations when federal immigration inspections happen
- What you need to know now to manage your workforce’s AI use
Policy and Rulemaking Updates
Air program rulemaking: The Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) held rulemaking advisory committee (RAC) meetings May 18 and 21 on the Cleaner Air Oregon toxicity reference value rulemaking currently in progress. DEQ is proposing to adjust toxicity values for 303 chemicals and make the most stringent air toxics regulatory program in the country even more stringent. Due to the highly technical nature of the rulemaking, OBI engaged ToxStrategies, a nationally recognized toxicology consultancy that frequently works with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and many state environmental agencies. In response to ToxStrategies’ work, DEQ has adjusted some of the toxicity values. The final RAC meeting is June 30.
Climate program rulemaking: On May 28, the first of four meetings was held on the Climate Protection Program emissions/energy intensive trade exposed rulemaking. The rulemaking would amend the CPP by establishing a carbon benchmark or carbon intensity value (i.e. tons of emissions per widget) for an established list of manufacturers rather than placing those companies under a traditional declining cap of greenhouse gas emissions. The rule is intended to protect the competitiveness of trade-exposed manufacturers by evaluating emissions in a way that would allow businesses to grow or locate new facilities in Oregon. DEQ’s approach is complicated by the fact that facilities and the products manufactured in them are highly individualized whether the product is semiconductors or French fries. OBI has convened an industry stakeholder group to develop a coordinated approach to the rulemaking. While the rulemaking is critical in protecting trade-exposed manufacturers, OBI continues to advocate to repeal and replace the CPP with an economywide cap and invest program eligible for linkage with other market-based state programs like Washington and California. Three more RAC meetings will be held between now and Oct. 21.
USMCA renewal letter: Oregon’s international trade relationships have been a major element of our past economic success. Any hope of regaining and accelerating our competitive position requires strong trade relationships. Accordingly, OBI has shared with Oregon’s congressional delegation our support for renewal of the United States/Mexico/Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), negotiated during the first Trump term as a replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Read the letter here.
Governor’s transportation work group: The governor’s Transportation Vision Work Group will hold its second meeting on June 1. At this meeting, the group will charge subgroups with work plans. The announced subgroups are Maintenance, Preservation and Emergency Response; Community Livability and Safety; Major Projects; Freight Mobility; Transit; Funding and Finance. Subgroup memberships have not been announced, but Duke Shepard, an OBI senior policy director, was invited onto the Major Projects subgroup. OBI members and partners are participating on other subgroups as well. Meeting schedules have not yet been determined.
Data center work group: The governor’s data center work group held an all-day webinar focused on energy on May 29. There were numerous presentations from operators, utilities, consultants and advocacy groups providing both data center industry-specific information and projections, as well as contextual data and plans about energy demand and supply across the region. OBI is working with data center industry members to coordinate our approach to the volatile policy and political environment that has arisen around this vital economic infrastructure.
Land use work group: OBI continues to participate in an interim work group focused on possible legislative revisions to Oregon’s citizen-participation land use goal. The group was convened by Rep. Thuy Tran, D-Portland, Rep. Sara Finger-McDonald, D-Corvallis, and Rep. Susan McLain, D-Hillsboro. This goal has not been updated since it was adopted following the passage of SB 100 in 1974. Most of the conversation has been about simplifying, streamlining and modernizing methods and practices of public engagement. The process has been inclusive and collaborative but it is not clear yet if a legislative proposal will emerge that has broad consensus given the wide range of sensitivities associated with the Oregon land use system.
Health plan report: Universal Health Plan Governance Board shared its finalized focus group report during a special May meeting. OBI participated in the process earlier this year. The board interviewed representatives from large and small businesses, labor unions, hospitals and health systems, health insurers, coordinated care organizations and other community-based organizations. Parts of the report were surprisingly candid. Across focus groups, participants acknowledged that a state-run universal coverage program would not address the structural drivers of health care costs, and there was little confidence that such a program would be financially sustainable. Participants also expressed concern that the proposal’s cost-containment measures could further exacerbate health care access challenges, that the program’s cost analysis does not reflect operational or financial reality and that the current revenue proposal appears inconsistent with broader business climate improvement efforts promoted by state leaders. Interestingly, labor unions appeared to share concerns that the proposal could further complicate benefits administration. Some also expressed worry that workers could ultimately pay more while receiving fewer of the benefits they fought to secure. To close with a fitting description of the current state of play, one participant remarked: “We can’t even pass a gas tax in Oregon. How would we pass all these new taxes?” The full report can be found here.
Custom manufacturing rules: OBI and Oregon employers offered their critiques to BOLI’s draft rules implementing HB 2688, which applies prevailing wage requirements to off-site “bespoke” (or custom) pre-fabrication work on public improvement contracts. As whatever rules are ultimately approved by BOLI will implement a flawed bill, OBI staff are beginning to work on a bill in 2027 to fix the program. In the meantime, Oregon’s manufacturers, construction contractors and OBI provided thoughtful feedback requesting the agency:
- Clarify the applicability and enforcement of the law on out-of-state vendors.
- Conduct a robust educational campaign to ensure agencies and businesses understand the new requirements.
- Ensure manufacturers can comply with the rules without a disruption in their operations.
Paid family leave: The Paid Leave Advisory Committee met on May 7 and received a presentation on the system’s status. The Paid Leave Oregon trust fund is projected to have an 8.3-month reserve by the end of 2026, and the advisory committee will discuss rate adjustments at its August meeting. The agency continues to be vague about the instances of fraud within the system, partially for reputational reasons and partially to avoid sharing information that might lead others to exploit system weaknesses. However, Oregon employers have reported to OBI instances of significant abuse of the program, and we believe additional scrutiny is warranted. OBI staff have begun meeting with legislators who may be amenable to reasonable system reforms.
Recycling program rulemaking: On May 27, DEQ held its fourth of five RAC meetings on the Plastic Pollution and Recycling Modernization Act (RMA). During the meeting, the RAC discussed potential changes to various packaging materials, responsible end markets and various definitions. Of particular note, DEQ acknowledged the RMA’s definition of “producer” had led to considerable confusion among businesses and is considering changes to the rule it adopted back in 2024. While OBI is in the process of reviewing the proposed change, it is almost certain that this aspect of the RMA needs a statutory change so that it aligns with programs being implemented by other states. DEQ also has proceeded with this rulemaking process despite the existence of a preliminary injunction that bars DEQ from enforcing the RMA against members of the National Association of Wholesalers and Distributers (NAW). NAW has challenged the RMA on constitutional grounds, and a trial is scheduled for the week of July 13. OBI eagerly awaits the results of that trial because the RMA has proven to be an extremely costly program that ultimately will do little to increase recycling in Oregon. OBI hopes to significantly reform the RMA during the 2027 session so that it does not impose such drastic price increases on businesses and consumers. The final RAC meeting is scheduled to take place July 20.
Vacation payout bill: In a worrisome move, Rep. Travis Nelson, D- Portland, held a large virtual meeting to begin work on legislation to require employers to pay out accrued vacation time upon termination of employment. OBI was the only private employer or related association invited to participate. Rep Nelson introduced HB 4094 during the 2026 short session. It was voted out of the House business and labor committee and subsequently died. Amendments were drafted to the bill to codify exiting case law and BOLI guidance on accrued vacation payout at termination but were not adopted. OBI would oppose legislation that goes beyond requiring employers to comply with their written policies in place at the time of termination. OBI staff are communicating with relevant legislators on the effects Rep. Nelson’s legislation would have on employers and employees.
Notable News
Vacancy tax study: Imposing a tax or fee on Portland property owners with vacant retail or residential spaces would be legally complex and unlikely to address the root cause of empty storefronts and housing units. So suggests a study commissioned by Portland City Council after councilors Jamie Dunphy and Sameer Kanal introduced the idea of imposing such a plan (Portland Business Journal).
La Pine data center: La Pine officials have rejected a pitch to bring a data center to their Central Oregon city, despite estimates from a developer that it could have brought hundreds of millions of dollars in investments and hundreds of jobs (Oregon Public Broadcasting).
Energy project challenged: Columbia Riverkeeper said it and the Yakama Nation have petitioned the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals to review the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s recent licensing of the Goldendale Energy Storage Project. They say the project would destroy a sacred Yakama Nation site called Pushpum (Portland Business Journal).
Prosperity Council response: Influential Oregon labor and progressive groups are calling on an advisory panel convened by Gov. Tina Kotek to prioritize working class people over wealthy corporations as it finalizes recommendations to boost the state’s economic climate (The Oregonian).
Wildfire liability: A Multnomah County Circuit Court judge on May 22 agreed with PacifiCorp and extended a pause on damages trials in the big wildfire class-action lawsuit known as the James case. PacifiCorp had won an emergency stay in early April after the Oregon Court of Appeals reversed a 2023 verdict that held the Portland-based utility liable in four devastating Labor Day 2020 wildfires (Portland Business Journal).
SNAP benefits: Oregonians who received federal aid to pay for their groceries last year frequently reported working for the nation’s largest grocery and retail corporations, according to a Capital Chronicle analysis of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program data from the Oregon Department of Human Services (Oregon Capital Chronicle).
Portland hotel struggles: Downtown Portland’s hotel market is still trying to fight its way back to pre-pandemic occupancy levels. Data from CoStar shows that in 2019, occupancy levels for the Portland market were at 71.5%. Following the height of the pandemic, that number has yet to exceed 65% with 2025 marking a 61.8% occupancy rate (Portland Business Journal).
Ballot initiative signatures: A controversial Oregon ballot initiative that would effectively criminalize hunting and fishing is one step closer to landing on the November ballot. The backers of Initiative Petition 28, which would expand Oregon’s animal cruelty laws, have now collected and submitted more than 120,000 signatures to the state — slightly above the roughly 117,000 signatures required to get the measure on the ballot. However, a portion of those signatures will almost certainly be ruled ineligible, such as any from individuals who are not registered voters (The Oregonian).
Workforce development: Oregon’s job landscape may seem grim. The state’s 5.2% unemployment rate is among the highest in the country, and well above the 4.3% national average. But Oregon employers still have plenty of jobs open for skilled workers. Jobs in healthcare, technology, and construction are all expected to grow in the coming years — a trend forecast by the state employment department at the end of last year. But the pathway to some of these careers is not as clear as it could be. And to help Oregonians fill these jobs, state agencies, industries, and educational institutions need to better coordinate their workforce-development strategies with one another (Oregon Public Broadcasting).
Portland arts tax: The Portland City Council on May 27 passed changes to the city’s arts tax that will increase the cost for some and remove it for others. The amendment, which councilors passed in a 7-5 vote, will raise the tax for the first time since it was passed, from $35 to $50 per person over 18 (The Oregonian).
Bank president named: Bank of America has named its new market president for Oregon and Southwest Washington. Marc Compton, who has served as the managing director and market executive of Bank of America Private Bank in Silicon Valley, Oregon and Southwest Washington, becomes the new market president for the Oregon and Southwest Washington market (Portland Business Journal).
TriMet layoffs: The Portland area’s transit agency said May 27 it will cut 170 positions starting July 1. TriMet, in calling the move a “historic staffing reduction,” said it will eliminate about 400 positions, but 140 of those jobs are vacant (Portland Business Journal).
Check Out OBI’s Member Benefits
OBI offers members a range of programs that can save money or help small businesses offer benefits normally available only to much larger companies. Benefit programs include:
- HealthChoice: Helps businesses with fewer than 100 employees offer comprehensive health-care benefits through our partnership with Regence BlueCross BlueShield of Oregon.
- Partners Retirement Plan: Allows multiple employers to offer a 401(k) benefit to employees through a group structure while maintaining individual company design and control over the benefit – such as eligibility, employer match, and vesting.
- CompSAFE: Helps eligible companies enjoy workers’ compensation discounts through SAIF Corporation.
- Fuel Program: Helps members save fuel costs through our partnership with Ed Staub & Sons.
- LegalPLUS: OBI members receive 15 minutes of free legal consulting per month from Innova Legal Advisors.
Go here to learn about all of OBI’s member benefits.