OBI Weighing Options Following Recycling-Law Ruling
EPR law upheld: In an Aug. 27 ruling, U.S. District Judge Michael Simon upheld Oregon’s 2021 Plastic Pollution and Recycling Modernization Act (RMA) following a five-day trial in mid-July. The National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) challenged the RMA in a 2025 lawsuit brought against the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality. Read NAW’s response to Judge Simon’s ruling here.
OBI supported challenge: OBI, the Northwest Grocery Retail Association and Food Northwest filed a friend of the court brief in July arguing, among other things, that the RMA unconstitutionally restricts interstate commerce and delegates regulatory authority to a private entity, program administrator Circular Action Alliance. Simon dismissed these objections, which constituted the core of NAW’s challenge.
OBI statement: OBI expressed disappointment with Simon’s ruling, pointing to the difficulty of complying with the RMA, the program’s lack of transparency and its exorbitant costs for businesses and consumers. OBI and coalition partners are reviewing the decision and evaluating next steps, including further legal options. Read OBI’s full statement here. Read Judge Simon’s ruling here.
Quarterly Revenue Forecast Shows Mixed Signals
GDP growth ticks up: On Aug. 26, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) released the economic and revenue forecast for the third quarter of 2026. Much of the topline information has changed little since the release of the second-quarter forecast in May.
Perhaps the most notable change involves the state GDP, which has begun to track closer to the national average. Prior to 2026, Oregon’s economy had grown more slowly than the national economy for five consecutive years. That hasn’t changed. However, for the first quarter of 2026, year-over-year real GDP growth, at 2.4%, lagged the national average by only 0.3 percentage points. For most of the past five years, Oregon GDP has trailed the national average by roughly one percentage point.
Inflation also decreased from 4.4% last quarter to 3.6% this quarter, and the risk of an economywide recession has decreased to 18%, according to the OEA.
Continuing job losses: Employment in Oregon continues to struggle, especially in traded-sector industries, and the state’s unemployment remains steady at 5.2%.
The OEA’s presentation to the Legislature no longer features data on industry-specific job losses and gains. In its full report, the OEA now only references data published by the Oregon Employment Department, which shows the state has continued to experience year-over-year job losses in 2026. That trend is unusual, “as it has historically been the case to only see year-over-year payroll declines during recessionary periods.” Once again, the private education and health services sector continues to act as the state’s primary driver of job creation.
As a state that leans heavily on personal income taxes for government funding, Oregon’s declining employment jeopardizes its fiscal outlook. To reverse the trend, the Legislature in 2027 must enact policies that increase the state’s competitiveness and attract business investment.
Population growth slow: Meanwhile, Oregon’s population continues to grow slowly at 0.4%. Since Oregon relies on in-migration rather than natural increase for population growth, policymakers must enact policies that will attract working-age people. These must address the state’s high cost of living, its uncompetitive tax burden and its underperforming schools.
Revenue gains: Despite Oregon’s persistently sluggish economy, the OEA again increased the state’s revenue projections for the 2025-27 biennium. Oregon’s ending fund balance is now projected to be $400 million, and net general fund revenue is projected to be $35.75 billion, which is an increase of $55 million from the last forecast and $194 million from the close of the 2025 session. Those revenue projections reflect stronger-than-expected personal income tax withholdings, which compensate for softening corporate income tax collections.
The revenue forecast also estimates that Oregon will have $540 million more than previously expected during the 2027-29 biennium, contributing to a nearly $7 billion (or 18.6%) increase over the current biennium.
No need for tax hikes: Given this growth – and Oregon’s struggling economy – new and higher taxes should be off the table in 2027. In its full report, the OEA emphasizes the importance of pro-growth policy by noting, “[n]ational and state economic performance have withstood stiff headwinds from trade tariffs and elevated energy prices, in large part due to substantial fiscal support from the tax cuts embedded in H.R. 1.” Unfortunately, the Legislature in 2026 ensured that Oregon businesses will not benefit from several of these provisions, including bonus depreciation and the preference for qualified small business stocks. OBI will push the Legislature to revisit such tax treatment in 2027, ensuring that businesses have more capital to hire workers, increase wages and invest in efficiency.
You can read the full OEA report here.
Oregon Scorecard Update: Professional Licensure Ranking
Occupational licensing index: Oregon’s occupational licensing burden is the nation’s greatest, according to the Archbridge Institute, which on Aug. 19 released its annual State Occupational Licensing Index. This marks the fourth year for the annual ranking, which placed Oregon in the top spot for licensing burdens in 2025 as well. The Washington, D.C.-based Archbridge Institute describes itself as a nonpartisan, nonprofit “public policy think tank dedicated to lifting barriers to human flourishing.”
Methodology: The Archbridge Institute gives each state a barrier score and a license score. The barrier score reflects restrictions on tasks associated with occupational titles (for instance, several states require “shampooers” to obtain cosmetology licenses, thereby creating barriers to shampooing). The license score reflects each state’s total number of professional licenses. These two scores determine each state’s total score.
Oregon’s performance: Oregon received the index’s top (most burdensome) scores for both barriers and licenses. Oregon’s most uniquely licensed occupation, according to the index, is lactation consultant, which is licensed in only two states.
Learn more: Oregon’s occupational licensure ranking is one of dozens of rankings and data points tracked on OBI’s online Oregon Scorecard. The state’s nation-leading occupational licensing burden is not a surprise. According to OBI research, Oregon is the nation’s seventh most heavily regulated state. Read the full State Occupational Licensing Index here, and check out OBI’s 2025 regulatory impact analysis here.
Webinar Recording: Pending I-5 Closure in Portland
Beginning Sept. 11, all southbound I-5 lanes will close in Portland between Broadway/Weidler and I-84. The closure, which will allow for the replacement of the road surface, will last for five weeks and create potentially significant travel disruptions. ODOT expects congestion to extend into Washington and for southbound travel to take two or three times as long. On July 30, representatives of the Oregon Department of Transportation joined OBI to discuss the project, its likely effects and planned detours.
Go here to watch a recording of the webinar. Go here to view the slide deck used in ODOT’s presentation.
Helpful links:
- I-5 Rose Quarter Improvement Project website, which includes information about the closure, including maps.
- Business Toolkit created by ODOT.
- Get There Oregon resources for employers.
- Sign up for traffic and closure alerts here.
Latest Podcast: Oregon Director of Arts and Culture Amy Lewin
Our interview: In late 2025, Amy Lewin became director of arts and culture at the Oregon Arts Commission and the Oregon Cultural Trust. Both of these entities are overseen by Business Oregon, the state’s business development department. In this episode, Amy talks with Oregon Business Matters about the important work the arts commission and cultural trust do, what she’s learned during her first year on the job, the relationship between business and the arts, and what might lie ahead.
Listen to our interview with Amy here.
Arts awards and summit: To recognize the cultural contributions of businesses, organizations and individuals, consider submitting a nomination for the 2026 Arts & Culture Awards before Sept. 4. The awards, presented by the Oregon Cultural Trust, cover seven categories, including Business of the Year, which recognizes a for-profit business that has demonstrated consistent and significant support for arts and culture. Winners will be honored on Tuesday, Dec. 1, at the Arts and Culture Awards Celebration, which will take place the Oregon Convention Center. Go here to learn more about the awards ceremony.
More episodes: Check out our recent interview with Travel Medford Director of Sports Development Darren Van Lehn. Links to this and other interviews can be found on the Oregon Business Matters website.
The Oregon Business Matters podcast can be found on major podcast platforms, including Apple, Spotify and YouTube.
Policy and Rulemaking Updates
Job creation credit: On Aug. 10, Business Oregon posted amended temporary rules governing the state’s new $1,000-per-job tax credit. The new rules refine temporary rules issued June 5. The credit is targeted to advanced manufacturing, bioscience, clean tech, food and beverage processing, wood and forest products, high tech, and outdoor gear and apparel. Eligibility ultimately will be determined using applicable North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. Employers are limited to 10 jobs, and state revenue for the program is capped at $12.5 million. While we still have concerns about the relative value of this credit given its size and scope, OBI appreciates Business Oregon’s responsiveness in amending the rules to capture manufacturing categories more fully.
Transportation survey: The Governor’s Rebuilding Our Transportation Vision Workgroup has reached its halfway point (all meetings are on YouTube, if you are interested). ODOT has released a survey for public feedback. Please take the time to fill it out here so that the perspective of business leaders is included. It will take only a few minutes.
Unemployment for strikers: The United States Department of Labor (USDOL) has advised the state of Washington that workers receiving unemployment insurance (UI) while on strike must meet the same requirements as other UI recipients. This advice mirrors guidance received by the Oregon Employment Department earlier this year. Washington’s Legislature, like Oregon’s, passed legislation in 2025 allowing workers involved in a strike to receive UI benefits but sought to exempt those workers from the requirements if they look for work and accept it when offered. Our neighbors to the north are initiating rulemaking to bring their policies in line with the federal requirements. Oregon’s rules are silent on the issue, providing no exceptions or additional protection to striking workers. USDOL’s advice has consistently, over multiple decades and from Democratic and Republican administrations, allowed workers involved in a labor dispute to receive UI benefits while requiring them to look for and accept work appropriate to their circumstance when offered. OBI will continue to monitor the implementation and eventual use of Oregon’s law carefully for compliance with federal requirements.
Fuel tank rulemaking: DEQ held a rulemaking advisory committee (RAC) meeting Aug. 28 on the certificate of financial responsibility (COFR) rulemaking for bulk fuel terminals located in Multnomah, Columbia and Lane counties. The COFR rules implement HB 4100, which passed during the 2026 legislative session. The bill requires fuel terminals to provide certificates of financial responsibility of up to $300 million in the event of a spill that would fund the cost of cleanup. OBI and fuel terminal operators supported the legislation because it also included a statewide pre-emption prohibiting local governments from requiring additional financial assurances beyond the provisions in HB 4100. During the RAC meeting, local government representatives and activists pushed for regulatory requirements beyond the statutory authority of HB 4100. Though a proposed rule is not expected until late October or early November, OBI will coordinate comments in response to the RAC meeting on behalf OBI members subject to the regulation. For more information, contact Sharla Moffett (sharlamoffett@oregonbusinessindustry.com), who is on the RAC.
Universal health care: After anticipating that it would not make its September deadline, the Universal Health Plan Governance Board created a workgroup in August to draft and debate the outstanding pieces of its implementation report to the Legislature, primarily the finance and revenue section of the report. The original revenue need identified by the board was between $70-$80 billion per biennium (though a minority report outlines why that is likely low). The workgroup will be tasked with further detailing the likely revenue needs of a universal health plan before a new Dec. 1 deadline.
Cancer presumption: In a rare if not unprecedented move, Gov. Kotek’s office testified in favor of a legislative concept at its initial review by the Management and Labor Advisory Committee (MLAC). The language in question would provide a presumption that all cancers afflicting professional firefighters are work-related. The impact of the bill on private sector employers and the workers’ compensation system is unclear. However, the precedent of a governor advocating for any bill directly at MLAC is worrisome to OBI and our partners. MLAC is an advisory board to policymakers for workers’ compensation issues and was created as part of the Mahonia Hall reforms that gave Oregon one of the most efficient and affordable workers’ compensation systems in the country. MLAC has a long history of resolving complicated and emotionally charged legislation and policy decisions, and its process has been historically respected by the executive and legislative branches. Direct intervention from any governor creates a dangerous precedent that will likely diminish the effectiveness of the committee and lead to erosion of Oregon’s workers’ compensation system, which provides affordable rates and high-quality care to injured workers.
Looming retailer regulations: After the Legislature passed privacy legislation in 2023 (SB 619) and placed burdensome regulations on online transactions in 2025 (SB 130), at least one legislator hopes to pass a bill that would regulate retailers’ use of consumer data in potentially every consumer transaction. Language is not yet available, and a work group (that includes OBI) is meeting to write the bill. OBI worries that this effort will mirror legislation proposed but not yet passed in other states, which included language that would limit the ability of retailers to offer discounts. Further, OBI is concerned about the layering of expansive regulations that can generally increase compliance costs at a time when affordability is an issue for businesses and consumers. Lastly, we need to ensure efforts like this do not duplicate or confuse language already on the books, such as that in Oregon’s expansive Unlawful Trade Practices Act, and are based on harms supported by data, not broad speculation.
Hillsboro battery moratorium: Hillsboro’s recent adoption of a 120-day data center moratorium was not surprising given the national context of data center controversy and the particularly heated environment in Washington County. What was surprising, however, was the city’s inclusion of a 120-day moratorium on battery energy storage systems in its resolution. While the resolution is a local issue, it has significant statewide energy and regulatory implications. On Aug. 10, OBI raised concerns about the Hillsboro storage system moratorium with the Oregon Department of Energy and the Oregon Climate Change Commission, with a request that they engage on this issue. As OBI pointed out, Oregon cannot meet the arduous climate and energy regulatory requirements imposed by legislative action, governor’s executive orders and agency regulations if battery storage development is rendered impractical through local moratoria and excessive regulations.
Notable News
Oregon expense: Oregon used to be something of a bargain. The state was a rare find on the West Coast, a place where homes were cheap by national standards, household products like groceries were relatively inexpensive and utility rates were the envy of many other parts of the country. No longer (The Oregonian).
Oregon estate tax: At $1 million, Oregon has the lowest estate tax exemption of any of the 16 states, plus the District of Columbia, that impose estate or inheritance taxes, according to the Tax Foundation. Gov. Tina Kotek’s Prosperity Council has recommended that state lawmakers erase that distinction and raise the minimum threshold for paying the tax to the $3 million to $5 million range, which would place it on par with Washington state (California has no estate tax) (Portland Business Journal).
Small business tax: Even before Gov. Tina Kotek signed Senate Bill 1507 into law in mid-April, Oregon business and technology advocates were up in arms (Portland Business Journal).
Transportation funding: Oregon officials are compiling an extensive list of potential taxes and fees that lawmakers may consider tapping to close a major transportation funding deficit next year. A preliminary version of the detailed analysis, obtained by The Oregonian/OregonLive, includes dozens of options, including new or increased taxes on everything from tires and rideshare trips to cellphone bills and wine sales. Some of those options have proven deeply unpopular with Oregon voters historically (The Oregonian).
Data center support: Much of the public outcry over data-center construction has centered on electricity costs, water consumption and noise. Now, a new battlefront is opening up over jobs, too. Call it the backlash to the backlash: Nationwide resistance to the construction has grown so broad that politicians on both sides of the aisle have halted approvals or tightened oversight as midterm elections approach. Unions and construction trade groups are now entering the fray from the other side, warning that such actions endanger thousands of building-related jobs. They are threatening to withhold support of candidates opposing the data-center projects (The Wall Street Journal).
Health care agreement: For many months, unresolved negotiations between a major Oregon health insurer and the state’s flagship medical center threatened to restrict health care access for hundreds of thousands of people. On Aug. 27, that conflict appeared to have been basically resolved. Regence Blue Cross Blue Shield of Oregon and Oregon Health & Science University announced a deal that would allow most—though not all—of Regence’s members in the state to continue to receive in-network care at OHSU into 2027 (Willamette Week).
Bend geothermal: The company aiming to build the world’s first superhot geothermal power plant in Central Oregon has closed a $180 million Series B round, bringing its total backing to $280 million (Portland Business Journal).
Medicaid eligibility: More than 1.4 million Oregonians are enrolled in the Oregon Health Plan, the state’s Medicaid program for people with low incomes or certain disabilities. Starting next year, the state estimates up to 600,000 could face new federal requirements to work, attend school or volunteer for at least 80 hours a month to keep their health coverage, part of a Trump administration-backed overhaul approved by Congress (The Oregonian).
Drazan agenda: With 70 days left until the November election, state Sen. Christine Drazan came to the heart of Portland to unveil the agenda she would seek to enact if she becomes Oregon’s first Republican governor in four decades (The Oregonian).
Knight Cancer Institute: Graciela Gomez Cowger, who last October stepped down as CEO of the Portland law firm Schwabe, has taken on a new role. Cowger has joined OHSU’s Knight Cancer Institute as chief transformation officer, she announced on LinkedIn (Portland Business Journal).
Eugene energy fund: Eugene city councilors have opted to remain neutral regarding the Clean Energy Fund initiative that will appear on the November ballot (KLCC).
Intel partner layoffs: As the region deals with recent reductions at Intel’s Hillsboro facilities, an Intel partner with an Oregon office said it is laying off 74 workers. Amentum said in a letter to Hillsboro Mayor Beach Pace that the move comes as an Intel contract expires Oct. 19. The contract, the company told Pace, was awarded to “another competitor contractor.” (Portland Business Journal)
Homeless shelter cuts: Over the past five years, Portland and Multnomah County leaders have poured millions of dollars into expanding the area’s homeless shelter system, creating more than 2,300 new beds in an effort to quickly move people off the streets. But now, with homelessness still on the rise, those leaders are dismantling a significant slice of the system they just built (The Oregonian).
Winery wildfire lawsuit: Jackson Family Wines filed a $60 million lawsuit against PacifiCorp, blaming the electric utility for smoke from September 2020 wildfires in Oregon that the winery claims “devastated” its grapes and wine sales (Portland Business Journal).
Mail voting: The Supreme Court sided with the Trump administration Aug. 24 in a case over President Donald Trump’s executive order restricting mail-in voting, though it remains unclear how much can be implemented before the fast-approaching midterm elections (Associated Press).
Nosler headquarters: A Central Oregon-based ammunition manufacturer hosted the grand opening of its new Redmond location on Aug. 22. Nosler, a gun and ammo company once based in Bend, opened its 75,000-square-foot headquarters with a celebration that featured a raffle, food trucks and sales (The Bulletin).
Portland school enrollment: Portland Public Schools enrolled about 150 more students than Portland State University anticipated it would in the 2025–26 school year. Yet an annual report by PSU’s Population Research Center continues to project long-term enrollment loss in Oregon’s largest school district (Willamette Week).
Registration Open for Sept. 16 Oregon Infrastructure Summit
The annual Oregon Infrastructure Summit will take place Sept. 16 at the Salem Convention Center. Organized by the Northwest Environmental Business Council, the summit will cover transportation funding, housing innovation, energy infrastructure, the Oregon Prosperity Roadmap and more.
Visit the summit website here to learn more, and go here to register.
Check Out OBI’s Member Benefits
OBI offers members a range of programs that can save money or help small businesses offer benefits normally available only to much larger companies. Benefit programs include:
- HealthChoice: Helps businesses with fewer than 100 employees offer comprehensive health-care benefits through our partnership with Regence BlueCross BlueShield of Oregon.
- Partners Retirement Plan: Allows multiple employers to offer a 401(k) benefit to employees through a group structure while maintaining individual company design and control over the benefit – such as eligibility, employer match, and vesting.
- CompSAFE: Helps eligible companies enjoy workers’ compensation discounts through SAIF Corporation.
- Fuel Program: Helps members save fuel costs through our partnership with Ed Staub & Sons.
- LegalPLUS: OBI members receive 15 minutes of free legal consulting per month from Innova Legal Advisors.
Go here to learn about all of OBI’s member benefits.